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Saturday, 18 October 2014

Serrano Limited



Serrano Limited ("Serrano" or the "Company") is offering 30m shares comprising 22.5m New Shares and 7.5m vendor shares at $0.23 each. 28.5m shares will be place out with about 1.5m shares for the public. The offer will end on 23 Oct 2014 at 12pm and will trade on 28 Oct 2014. The market cap of the Company is around S$34.5m shares. 

Principal Business

The Company is a leading interior fit-out solutions company in Singapore and South East Asia. If i can use a simple term, you can call it the "interior designer" for property development firm in fitting out the properties.


Some of the well known properties in Singapore which you may be familiar will be D' Leedon, The Interlace, Reflections at Keppel Bay. The list below is the on going projects for 2015.


As of the date of the prospectus, the order book stands at S$69.7m. 

Financial Highlights


The revenue has been increasing steadily with net profit jumping from $0.6m FY2011 to $3.2m in FY2013.


The EPS for FY2013 based on the enlarged share cap is around 1.70 cents and that translate into a PER of 13.5x.

What I like about the Company
  • A long list of on-going projects with some prestigious projects
  • Generating revenue from Myanmar, the last frontier in South East Asia
  • Share price of 23c is close to its NAV of 16.9c
Some of my concerns
  • Vendor selling some shares
  • Exposed to the cyclical property cycle
  • Small cap stock
  • A long list of pre-ipo investors, many whom i am not too familar with.
  • Declined profitability for half year 2014
  • Family run business with many family members in the firm.
  • Company is a cashflow negative company as it has to finance the projects with bank borrowings and then collect the cash from the main contractor
Mr IPO ratings

I am giving it a 0 Chilli rating for the following reasons:
  1. Company is fully valued at this juncture with likelihood of a decline in profits for FY2014 given that HY 2014 has been disappointing. Having said that, the revenue recognition can be pretty lumpy for such companies.
  2. Property cycle turning downwards in Singapore
  3. Highly geared company and negative cash flow 
  4. Vendors are selling at IPO price
  5. Market sentiments is weak
Happy IPOing.

ISEC Healthcare Ltd



ISEC Healthcare Ltd ("ISEC" or the "Company") is offering 70m placement shares at 28c each for a listing on Catalist. The IPO will close on 23 Oct and list on 28 Oct. There is no public tranche. The market cap based on the IPO price will be around $128.38m.

The Company is a medical eye care provider with ambulatory surgical centres in Malaysia and Singapore. Actually the term sheet is pretty comprehensive, you can access it here

Business


ISEC will use the IPO proceeds mainly for expansion into the Asia Pac region.

Financial Highlights


The EPS for FY2013 after adjusting for the enlarged share capital and service agreement will be around Singapore 1.22 cents and that translate into a listing PER of around 22.9x, which is fairly valued.


Q1 2014 continued to show a strong growth over the prior quarter with profit reaching around 1.8m versus 1.27m against Q1 2013 (40% growth).

Assuming net profit for 2014 grow by on 25% (I am not privy to any forecast), the net profit will reach $7.08m. That translate into EPS of around Singapore 1.54c or 18x PE.

Dividend Policy

The Company intends to distribute at least 25% of its net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends. 

What I like about the business
  • Resilient healthcare sector with specialized services
  • Helmed by a team of experienced specialist doctors
  • Asset-light, strong cash flow model
  • Demographics of ageing population with increased demand and the means to pay for higher quality private health care
  • Strong alignment of interest with the management team and doctors who owns more than 60% of the Company and they are not cashing out at IPO. 
  • IPO shares are purely for new shareholders and the cash is going into the Company for expansion. In fact 84.7% of the shares will be under moratorium for 6 months! (page 58 of prospectus). 
  • Low free float of only 15%
  • 3 Independent directors are subscribing for 400,000 shares each
  • A decent dividend payout policy
Some of my concerns
  • A people business. You need a strong team of dedicated doctors to continue the growth
  • I would prefer a big 4 auditor
  • High listing valuation
  • Low liquidity post IPO
Talkmed Group

One of the director, Mr. Sitoh Yih Pin is also the director on Talkmed Group.


Talkmed Group IPO at 20c and rocketed to $1. The only difference is Talkmed was priced at a much better valuation back then but the share price still moved up strongly post IPO except that liquidity will dry up over time.

My ratings

To be honest with you, i quite like the Company despite the high valuation. The management probably consulted some Fengshui Master. It is priced at 28c, it will list on 28 Oct and the market cap is $128.38m. I will give it a 3 chilli rating purely for this :@P. This coupled with the low free float means that the company will be tightly controlled and should do well post listing despite the current market correction. 

I will give it a 2 Chilli rating because it doesn't have a public float and retail investors like us can only watch from the side.

Happy Salivating.

Saturday, 11 October 2014

Investment Seminar by bloggers

Click to sign up


It is heartening to see local financial bloggers coming together to organize an event. I was invited to speak at the seminar on IPOs but unfortunately, i am not prepared to appear in my ninja attire. Sorry my dear friends. ^_^

While i am not ready to be famous, the least i can do is help the organizer do a simple write up. The ticket costs $16 per person but and readers will get a 50% discount to cover the cost of organizing the event. The code is IPOFRIEND but you can probably get similar discount codes from other bloggers easily. haha

Please note that i do not know any of the bloggers personally and I am not earning any referral fees from this event and the organizer has promised this to be purely educational with no selling. The $16 is to cover the cost of organizing the event.

Hope you will enjoy the event and find it educational.

Friday, 3 October 2014

EMAS Offshore Limited - Balloting Results

EMAS Offshore Limited announced its balloting results today.


This is one of the "worst" application results i have seen whereby investors who applied for 1 to 39 lots are "fully alloted" and investors who applied more than 40 lots will be allotted some shares but it is "bao tiok" ~ 100% will get it. It is "bao tiok" and not "bao jiak". 


Do note that the shares can be fully arbitrage and that i had given it a zero chilli rating. The oslo price as of today remained at S$1.01 thereabouts. Be prepared for a rout on its listing next Wednesday...

Wednesday, 1 October 2014

EMAS Offshore Limited



EMAS Offshore Limited ("EMAS" or the "Company) is formerly know as EOC Limited. It has a primary listing in Oslo and the information is here. The secondary listing is in Singapore. The original term sheet is here and you can see that it is listed at the highest end of the valuation range.

Principal activities

EMAS is an established offshore oil and gas services provider which offers offshore support, accommodation and offshore production services to customers in the oil and gas industry.

The Company believes the core competitive strengths are:
  • Leading offshore services provider with one of the youngest and largest OSV fleet in Asia Pacific
  • Global reach with blue chip clientele
  • Integrated offshore solutions group with first mover advantage in high-growth markets
  • Experienced management team
Share offering

EMAS is offering 48.585m shares and the offering comprises of 11.1% of is outstanding share capital. 39.5m shares will be via placement and 9.085m shares via the public tranche at $1.21 per share.

The Company is also selling up to US$20m secondary shares to its existing shareholders for "anti-dilution" purposes.

There will also be an "over-allotment" option but frankly i will be very surprised if this is activated as the placement suffered from low demand during the book-building period. I am not sure what has transpired since then.

The offer will end at 12pm on 2 Oct and commence trading on 8 Oct 2014 at 9am.

Financial Statements


Revenue has been declining drastically from 2011 to 2013 from US$178m to US$43m. They have managed to jack up current year to date earnings to US$51m through "other operating income" in the likes of a sales and leaseback.  I don't like the look or smell of it.


From the cash flow statement, you can see that EMAS generated its cash from investing activities for 9M 2014 rather than from its operating activities, which is experiencing negative cashflows.

Pro Forma statement

The Company produced a pro-forma statement as if the business combination occurred.


I am not sure how much of the profit is recurring and how much expenses are one-off. It is really not too clear to me. Assuming the EPS will be around US 15 cents x 1.25 = Singapore 18.75 cents. Based on the IPO price of $1.21, the PE is around 6.4x. If i looked at the gross profit alone, i will be alarmed. The primary business revenue has deteriorated badly over the years!

Financial Restructuring

Ezra has done this many times. For example they spin out Triyards, they list EOC on Oslo and then do a sales and leaseback and now a secondary listing in Singapore! I am not really a fan of such financial engineering stuff!

Other News

The family behind EMAS recently settled a divorce suit. The news is here.

Valuation

If this is a secondary listing, it may be a good idea to know what existing investors at the primary market is valuing the company. It last traded on 30 Sep at NOK 5.10 and that translate into S$1.01 (versus the listing price of $1.21). Investors will probably be better off buying from the primary market in Oslo.


The peers however, seemed to be trading at higher valuations in SGX where even Ezra is trading at higher valuations.

My views

I don't really understand why the demand for the shares are so weak. It is probably investors (like myself) don't truly understand the Company. Given that the primary listing is trading at a 16.5% discount to the secondary listing price, investors are truly better off buying the existing shares than subscribing for the IPO (i am not sure if arbitraging is possible). 

If this is a primary listing in Singapore for the first time, i may given it a thumbs up given how i appraised Pacific Radiance back then but this bullish stance was somehow dampened by how PACC Offshore Services performing badly post IPO.

I will give it a zero chilli rating given the weak market sentiments, the financial engineering mindset and the fact that existing shareholders are valuing it lower in the primary listing venue in Oslo than in Singapore. I am sure Ezra has listed it there in the first place because Norwegian investors may appreciate such oil and gas assets better. 

Happy IPOing

Heidar's view

In case you don't know, the good thing about this secondary listing is that i have new friends from Norway. ^_^. This is the detailed analysis which he has emailed me on 3 Sep 2014. I copy and paste here for your kind reference on how Norwegian investors viewed EMAS. He have definitely done a more detailed analysis than me but do note the email and the analysis is not updated.

For us Norwegian investors EOC was a very complicated, but interesting, company to understand. This was because of them not communicating clearly enough and also because of their relationship with Ezra and the different "internal" transactions with Ezra and Perisai Petroleum. I won't delve very deeply into how the current state of affairs came to be, but will give an outline of the current status of EOC (not including the changes). In the attachements I have included an english summary of the history and changes to the company written a couple of months ago. Thus it does not include the sale and leaseback of the Lewek Champion.

EOC owns fully two accommodation work barges, the Lewek Chancellor and Lewek Conqueror, which are on bareboat charters until 2015 and 2019 with additional options. They own 50/50 with Perisai one accommodation barge with heavy lift and pipe lay capability, the Enterprise 3, which has just finished maintenance and is being tendered out. They also own two FPSO vessels, the Lewek EMAS which they own 42% of, and the Perisai Kamelia which they own 49% of (Perisai owns the rest). They are on charters until 2017 and 2016 with additional options. Additionally they lease with repurchase right a vessel they sold in february, the Lewek Champion. It is on a charter until 2019, but they have only a marginal net revenue from the vessel between the lease cost and charter revenue. 

Additionally EOC owns 144661000 shares in Perisai Petroleum, or 12,1%. The management of EOC and Ezra views this as a strategic investment (it's booked as a investment held for sale, but disregard that) because, in their own words, the Malaysia market is mainly operated by preferred "national" companies, and Perisai holds this status. Thus the rest of the EMAS companies gain a foothold in the oil service segment in Malaysia through their controlling share in Perisai. 

The key figures for EOC were an equity of 238mUSD and a market cap in Oslo of around 110mUSD (111 mill shares) before the proposed transaction. In many ways it's fair to say that EOC was underpriced, but this was mainly due to low sector pricing of supply on the Oslo Stock Exchange, scepticism of Ezra as main owner (they used to own 45%) and the fact that EOC did not want to pay out dividends and instead focusing on investments into more accommodation barges.

So that was the earlier situation for EOC. On July 10. they released the announcement that EOC was to buy the Offshore Support Services part of Ezra, which essentially is everything apart from their subsea business and Triyards. 

The total cost for EOC is 520mUSD, which will be payed partially in shares and cash. 150mUSD is to be payed in cash, and 370mUSD is to be payed through the allotment of 280 million new shares for Ezra, which give the alloted shares a value of 8,18 NOK or 1,65 S$ each. This is about 0,18 S$ above the current share price in Oslo. 

To raise the cash for the transaction and also for other capex needs (investment in three new additional ships for example) they are planning on an additional listing in Singapore where they will try to raise about 250 mUSD in cash. The central question for us in Norway is what share price they will manage to get in the IPO, and thus how many shares they are alloting. 

In return EOC acquires the OSS business in Ezra, which consists of 44 owned or leased (with purchase right) vessels, management structure and a consulting department. The 44 vessels are a mix of 24 AHTS, 7 AHT, 10 PSV, 2 Barges and 1 Accommodation and Construction vessel. The AHTS/AHTs are divided into 15 vessels smaller than 8000bhp and 16 larger than 8000bhp. The utilitization rate has been between 80-90% since 2011, and the average age is about 6 years. They also claim to have a very strong capability in deep water supply. The equity value of OSS is 396mUSD, but they have options to repurchase the leased ships that according to RS Platou (Norwegian ship broker) has additional value not recognized in the book value. The market value of the leased ships are 405mUSD, but their book value is recorded at 174mUSD, giving an option value of nominally 230mUSD. The reason for this according to the management of Ezra is that the repurchase price was determined as a % of purchase cost adjusted by future depreciation, and the ships were built in Asia. Since their purchase the price for these kinds of ships has increased a lot and the market for them has become mor globalized, meaning that it's easier now to sell an Asian ship to the European market. Thus the total P/B of the OSS in the purchase is 1,31 and the P/RNTA is 0,71 (this also includes market value for the owned ships). 

The combined EOC will have an equity of 736mUSD, and a total of around 600 mill shares depending on the issue price in the IPO. Thus the P/B 1 price is around 7,6 NOK or 1,535 S$. The company will have interest bearing debt of 562mUSD and a NIBD of 412mUSD. This gives dem a debt/equity ratio of 0,76 and a NIBD/equity ratio of 0,55. They are planning to grow further, so an increase of debt is to be expected. The pro forma profit for the combined company in 2013 was 80,7mUSD, but this is including 49mUSD in other operating income, mainly relating to sale and leaseback of vessels. Thus the ROE of the company for 2013 with 736mUSD in equity is 4,3% ex other operating income. On a run rate basis for 2014 they will make 90mUSD with other operating income of 50mUSD, giving them a run rate ROE ex other operating income of 5,5%. It is important to note that 100mUSD of the equity will be invested in three new vessels that have not made an impact on these revenue figures, and it is also important to note that the old EOC ships were not fully operational in 2013 and 2014 so far, Ezra have written that this is also the case for the OSS vessels in that period. In my meeting with them the management also held the belief that the combined company would enjoy synergy benefits that would improve the combined bottom line. For example the combined administrative expenses will go down compared to costs for the two separate entities. Another synergy benefit is that the OSS has a loan interest rate 1-2 percentage points below that of the old EOC, and the combined company would be able to refinance the companies entire debts on terms matching OSS old ones, thus reducing combined financial costs. Oh, and by the way, their accounting year begins in september, meaning that we are in 2015 now according to their accounts.

Concerning dividends it is important to note that EOC has not previously payed a regular dividend (for a very long time). The management of Ezra claimed verbally that as they moved the OSS out of their core business they lost a significant source for working capital, and were thus dependant on the new EOC paying a healthy dividend. They would not however specify what percentage of the result would be allocated as dividend. 

In this article http://www.financeasia.com/News/389569,eoc-pre-markets-singapore-ipo.aspx the journalist claims that Ezra has advertised the combined company at a valuation of 1 bUSD, equaling around 10NOK or 2 S$ with 600 mill shares. This implies a PB ratio of 1,36. Do you think they can get such a price in the IPO, or do you deem that unlikely? If you have any information or opinions on the market sentiment for supply companies in general and Ezra in particular in Singapore/Asia right now I would greatly appreciate the input. Really any information you might have regarding the the IPO and the possible valuation of it would be greatly appreciated. 


Tuesday, 23 September 2014

Versalink - Balloting Results

Versalink reported its balloting results. The ratio is as follows. It is not easy to get though.



Having said that, the tranche is only 1.5x subscribed, so the debut may not be strong. It may be a good thing if you apply and didn't get it.

Let's see how it pans out tomorrow.

Happy IPOing



Saturday, 20 September 2014

Versalink Holdings Limited



Versalink Holdings Limited ("Versalink" or the "Company") is offering 37m shares at $0.30 each for a listing on Catalist of which 35.5m is via placement and 1.5m shares is for the public. 25m will be new shares and the balance vendor shares. The IPO will close on Sep 22 at 12pm. The market cap based on the IPO price is S$40.5m

The Company is an established Malaysia-based manufacturer of mid to high-end system furniture with over 90 overseas dealers in more than 40 countries globally.

Products

The picture below shows you the types of furniture produced by the Company for its customers.


Financial Highlights



I quite like the financials of the Company, which is showing a very nice growth momentum. Revenue grew from MYR 49m to 79m from FY2012 to FY2014 and Net Profit after tax MYR 4.4m to MYR 14.5m during the same period.

Based on the post IPO enlarged share capital of 135m shares, the adjusted EPS will be MYR 10.77 sen or (Singapore 4.24 cents). This translate into a PER of around 7x.

The NAV per share is about 17.1 cents versus the IPO price of 30c.

Dividends

The Company intends to pay not less than 30% of its net profit after tax attributable to shareholders for FY2015 and FY2016. Assuming the EPS remained the same, the Dividend Per Share = 30% x 4.24 = 1.272 Singapore cents. This translate into a yield of 4.24%, which is pretty decent.

Having said that, the sales is highly unpredictable and the Company said that it will record an interim loss for HY2015. This just shows you how difficult it can be to project sales and profitability on this Company. In this regard, my view is that the earnings may drop this year and the yield is probably lower than 4.24%. (Note that i have no visibility to the earnings forecast).

What I like about the Company
  • ranked by an independent research company as one of the most profitable companies among its comparables in Malaysia
  • Established track record and management team
  • Low cost base in Malaysia with a growing economy
  • Strong design and relationships with customers
  • Dividend paying company and lowly geared
Some of my concerns
  • Warehouse, Showroom and Hostel did not obtain the proper approval from the authorities prior to construction or for the usage (what is this.....?!!?)
  • The sales are denominated mainly in USD and MYR. A weakening of this two currencies will impact the reported financials in SGD
  • I don't really like the industry in which the Company is in. The barriers to entry is not very high and highly dependent on the economy. Whenever there is economy downturn, companies will not spend so much on "high-end" office furnitures.
  • Project basis revenue means that the revenue can be unpredictable and of non-recurring nature
  • Highly dependent on two key persons, Matthew Law and Arica Walters.
  • The vendors are selling out in spite of the low IPO valuation and this is a family owned business
Valuation

I can't think of a similar company listed in Singapore in the same type of business. Some of the listed competitors in the region will include Rockworth Public Company in Thailand and Euro Holding Berhad in Malaysia and Lion Metal Works in Indonesia.


While the peers are trading at ridiculous valuation, that is probably because they are not really profitable and some are loss making. It just show you how tough this sector can be.

The Company is reasonably priced based on the historical PER but i am frankly not too sure on a forward basis, what the PER is. My guess is that it will be much higher at 7x.

Mr IPO ratings

I think some of you will be disappointed with my ratings. Despite the reasonable valuation and uptrending sales and profitability of Versalink, I am personally not too convinced on the industry dynamics for the longer term. The Company is also going to report a loss making 1H2015. 

In this regard, i will give it a one chilli rating. Buy only if you like it. If you are asking whether you can "punt" the stock, given the small float, it is probably possible if the share placement is done properly. However, i understand from grapevine that the Company is placing out the shares by themselves. 

I will not be applying but if you really must punt, be nimble as liquidity will dry up over time unless the Company managed to prove itself to the investors that its earnings are sustainable. 

(Photo Credit: Ms Sarah Seet)

Thursday, 14 August 2014

JAPFA - Balloting Results

JAPFA announced that its public offer of 16.8m shares was 9.7x subscribed. Given the larger float and quantum and the weak IPO sentiments, i have to say that this is a very strong subscription rate. The overall IPO was about 5x subscribed.

Balloting Results

The above table shows the balloting results. Those who applied for less shares will actually have a higher chance than those who applied for more shares... unbelievable.

It is interesting that they did not declare who the substantial placement holders are... from the grapevine, Asdew and Marubeni are substantial placement subscribers but somehow the Company did not reveal those names.


Instead, they chose to announce that Dymon Asia Multi Strategy Master Fund has subscribed for 500,000 shares. Dymon is run by a NTU alumni called Danny Yong and he is one of the global top 40 highest earning hedge fund manager. He definitely helps fly our Singapore flag in the hedge fund world. ^_^

Mr. IPO's result

In case you still don't know,  Mr. IPO is one who puts money where his mouth is and is a pretty straight forward person. Yes or No. Buy or Sell. 


Anyway, i am not successful in my IPO application, perhaps i should have applied for less shares instead.

Happy IPOing.
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